Thursday, October 31, 2013

The Birth of a New Middle East

 

The Birth of a New Middle East

Ali Asghar Kazemi

February 24, 2011

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The year 2011 will be remembered as an important landmark in contemporary history of mankind and in particular the Middle East and the Arab world. Indeed, we are currently witnessing history in the making and parts of it are still in the process of achievement. Just like in childbirth, most often the process is accompanied by intense and sometimes prolonged pain.

The throbbing level depends on factors such as physical, psychological and pathological conditions of the person (society) involved. This means that people with prior experience of revolts and revolutions may more easily run through the change and accept its consequences. While, in societies with traditional authoritarian rules, low level of development, education, natural resources, may endure more pain in the process. In some cases, the society involved may fall into a “post-traumatic stress disorder”[1] which can be interpreted as civil wars, and other symptoms associated with internal crises etc.

What happened in North Africa and the Middle East during the past two months, may symbolize the kinds of change that are initiated through an unanticipated marriage of people’s and new international media, which together gives birth to self-consciousness and revolt against rulers and dictators no longer attuned with the necessities of our times.[2]

Tunisia which first set example in the series of revolution and swiftly overthrown the incumbent regime, had a relatively modest experience of democracy but in the long run became under an authoritarian corrupt rule that was no longer accountable to the people. Egyptians had a bit more difficulty in bringing down Mubarak who resisted to the last point but finally he was forced to step down. Unlike Ben Ali who quickly left the country, Mubarak preferred to stay in the country. Eventually, he knew that if he quits Egypt, people will demand his trial, as they did in the case of Ben Ali.

In other places in the Middle East, situation has varied depending on the factors cited above. In Yemen and Bahrain, while the governments have given some concessions to protestors in order to curb at least momentarily the uprising, in Libya the so-called “Mad Man” (Gaddafi) has so far resisted giving up the power and has even used war plane to bombard and deter the unprotected people.

This means that the suffering associated with the birth of the new child is too high to bear, unless a quick surgical operation, eventually with the help of foreign intervention, is taken place. In such case, possibly the whole world will be affected by the event.

The New Middle East will undoubtedly be different from the past. But eventually, the apprehension of some pessimists who fear that it will fall in the hands of Islamic fundamentalists is unfounded. However, democratic peace-loving states should not take this for granted and ought to do everything possible to avoid that opportunist lefts or rights take advantage of the situation.

If things are left at the will and initiative of the enlightened people of the region, without prejudice and grudge, the birth of the “New Middle East” will be a happy event that would pave the way for democracy, prosperity, peace and harmony in the world. /


[1] I have borrowed this term from regular childbirth literature.

[2] See my article on “ The Power of People Plus Media” Middle East Academic Forum

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Middle East in Perspective : Collected Papers

 

Middle East in Perspective: Collected Papers

Ali Asghar Kazemi

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New Trends in Diplomacy


New Trends in Diplomacy
:In the Light of U.S. Diplomatic Leaks
Ali Asghar Kazemi

December, 2010

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Generals and diplomats are said to be at the forefront of a state warriors in defense of its national interests. They act concurrently through wise tactics to “conquer” lands and tactful diplomacy to “convince” minds in the achievement of a “grand strategy” in pursuit of national goals. While the nature and substance of the two groups’ decisions and actions differ, traditionally they both submit to certain rules and discipline without which no task can be performed and no plan can be achieved successfully.

Now imagine what happens if we take away those two important elements from the equation for the sake of openness or moderation? This will indeed lead to chaos and anarchy in the field, hampering the fulfillment of the assigned task. This will damage the whole national strategy and interests. Thus, we cannot strip the soldiers and diplomats from their distinctive covers and leave them naked under the astonishing public eyes.

Recent diplomatic leaks of U.S. Embassies’ cables throughout the world are indeed a formidable event in diplomatic history which eventually will usher a new era of international relations and diplomacy.

Diplomacy is the major instrument of foreign policy by which a state can achieve objectives, realize values and defend national interests. Governments have the function to communicate through their diplomatic agents with those whose actions and behavior they wish to influence, deter, alter or reinforce. This process requires a clear definition of a state’s objectives, rationalizations for them, threats, promises, and the setting up plans and strategies to tackle with problems and contentious issues.

Thus, in its widest meaning the task of diplomacy is fourfold: a)It must determine state’s objectives in the light actual and potential power available for the pursuit of these objectives; 2) It must assess the objectives of other nations and the power actually and potentially available to them for the pursuit of their objectives; 3)It must determine to what extent these different objectives are compatible with each other; and finally 4) It must employ the means suited to the pursuit of its objectives.

With the development of mass communications, diplomacy in its classical terms, i.e. “secret diplomacy” has gradually lost its original meaning and has become a bureaucratic technique performed by carrier diplomats. They have no other choice than to rely on pieces of information they gather in their interactions with their counterparts or the public at large in the host states or during diplomatic conferences. Such pieces of information are rather crude and can only be analyzed along many others gradually accumulated by experts in the field.

The first blow to “secret diplomacy” came about after the Russian October Revolution of 1915 which changed the political configuration of the world. In fact, it was the Bolshevik revolutionary and Marxist theorist Leon Trotsky who first blew the horn. While serving as one of the leaders of the Russian October Revolution, as People's Commissar for Foreign Affairs, he ordered that all secret documents of the Tsarist regime should be made public. Thus, the undisclosed treaties previously signed by the Triple Entente that detailed plans for post-war reallocation of colonies and redrawing state borders were published. Trotsky believed that ‘Abolition of secret diplomacy,’ “is the first essential of an honorable, popular, and really democratic foreign policy.”

Woodrow Wilson expounded somehow similar view in his “Fourteen points” after WWI where he called for “open covenants of peace, openly arrived at, after which there shall be no private international understandings of any kind but diplomacy shall proceed always frankly and in the public view.”

Neither the Soviet revolutionary open diplomacy nor the Wilsonian ideal of peace through cooperation and accommodation lasted long enough to produce positive results. Thus, the creation of the League of Nations as a forum of open diplomacy failed to achieve its sublime objectives and World War II occurred with all its atrocities. The conclusion of WWII and the creation of the United Nations were anew the product of a secret diplomacy in Paris and Yalta for the distribution of power and territories among the victors.

Many still believe that secret diplomacy in the past has caused more harm to the world peace and order than any other reason. Opponents of this view claim that it was open diplomacy that in several occasions brought the world to brink of war and disaster. In fact, there are enough arguments for and against the above contention and it is difficult to pass a wise judgment on the matter. The real problem is what degree of secrecy or openness should be tolerated in diplomatic dealings and negotiations.

Proponents of “conspiracy theory” see the hands of U.S. State Department (or at least a fraction of it) behind the leaks and warn against sordid implications of the scheme. To them this whole venture has been initiated behind “the velvet curtain” of “American imperialism” with a view to discredit many world leaders and officials around the globe.

With respect to the actual ramifications of the leaks on Iran’s relations with its neighbors in the Persian Gulf and the wider Middle East, despite the seriousness of their hostile position on the nuclear issue and their willingness of a U.S. military intervention, the Islamic leaders have shown a low-key approach to the allegations. But, there is no doubt that the matter will remain in the memory of the revolutionary regime and will be added into the records of malevolent states of the region.

With regard to the rest of the world, including the 5+1 states involved in the nuclear negotiations, at first Iranian officials showed interests on the leaks as proof of their accusations against the “Western imperialism.” But, subsequently they condemned the scheme as mere fabrication and worthless documents having no legal value.

Whoever behind the venture and whatever the true aim of recent leaks of U.S. diplomatic correspondence, they seems to cause incontestable damage to states’ mutual confidence in discussing issues and critical matters susceptible to influence their national interests. Those persons responsible for these divulgations have not shown that they are really pursuing a benevolent cause for their deeds. They could eventually be labeled opportunists or anarchists who have no respect for long-established institutions of diplomacy and international affairs. /

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Ali Asghar Kazemi is professor of Law and International Relations in Tehran, Iran. See: http://www.aakazemi.blogspot.com

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Iran US Relations: Collected papers (2)

 

The following short papers has been written and published during past couple of years and collected here for easier access of students and researchers.